On July 11, 2018, the Trump administration of the United States announced a further tariff list for China, and proposed to impose a 10% ad valorem tax on about 200 billion US dollars of Chinese products, as a retaliation against China for US$34 billion in US exports. Sexual tariff response. The list covers agricultural products, daily necessities, textiles, hat products, metal products, etc. After the new round of tax increases, the Trump administration will hold a hearing from August 20th to 23rd, and will be announced after the announcement on August 30th. Take further decisions.

　　Comments:

　　China's exports of textiles to the United States into the new round of a list of 10% tariffs to be imposed on the US Eastern Time on April 3, the United States announced a list of tariffs on Chinese goods, involving an amount of about 50 billion US dollars, the proposed tax rate of 25%, mainly affecting aviation In the aerospace, information and communication technology, robotics and machinery industries, textiles and clothing are not on the list of tax collections, mainly due to the increase in the cost of consumption of American residents due to tax increases. On July 6, the United States officially imposed a 25% tariff on China's $34 billion in goods. China immediately announced a retaliatory tariff on US equivalent goods.

　　This time, the United States launched 200 billion US dollars of goods to be added with 10% tariffs to expand the category, involving more than 6,000 tariff items, trade disputes further escalated, of which textile and clothing affected more than 1,000 projects, mainly textiles (HS50~60 And hats (HS65), such as textile raw materials, yarns, fabrics, carpets, industrial textiles, leather, etc., do not include clothing (HS61 ~ 63) such as knitwear, woven garments, shoes, home textiles. This tax increase mainly affects the textile industry in the upstream of the industrial chain. Enterprises such as garments and shoes that are at the consumer end are basically not affected by exports to the United States.

China’s exports of textiles to the United States are affected by tariff increases of over 10 billion, and textile export competitiveness will decline.

　　According to the statistics of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, China exported US$45.64 billion worth of textiles, clothing and raw materials to the United States in 2017, accounting for 16.9% of the total export value of textiles and clothing. The United States is the largest single country market for China's textile and garment exports and exports to the United States. There are 35,000 textile, garment and raw materials enterprises. The tax collection list will affect China's exports of textiles and apparel to US$10.3 billion, accounting for 22.6% of China's exports of textiles, clothing and raw materials to the US, accounting for China's textile and apparel exports. 3.81%, involving about 20,000 export companies. With the rise of labor and land costs in China, the textile industry in Vietnam, India, Mexico and other countries has risen. After 2015, the growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports to the United States has dropped significantly. In 2017, China's exports of textiles and clothing to the United States increased by about 1% year-on-year. According to data from the US Department of Commerce, the proportion of textiles and apparel imported from the United States in China from January to February 2018 was 35.8%, down 1.45 PCT from 15 years, and the proportion of countries such as Vietnam and India increased. Before this round of tariffs is proposed, the US import tariff rate for Chinese textiles ranges from 0 to 25%, and some commodities can enjoy tax-free treatment. The proposed tariff rate is 10%, which is relatively large. If it is officially effective, it will affect China's competitiveness in exporting textiles to the United States.

　　Foreign demand picks up, exchange rate depreciation improves China's textile and garment exports, and it is expected that the escalation of trade disputes will affect the trend of export recovery

　　In 2015-16, due to the weak external demand and the shift of orders to Southeast Asia, China's textile and apparel exports continued to decline. In 2017, with the global economy picking up and external demand improving, China's textile and apparel export growth rate gradually picked up. In 2018, the recovery of external demand has increased, and the RMB exchange rate has continued to depreciate since April. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.6750 as of July 11, 2018, and the depreciation of 4.95% since May, and the accumulation of Chinese textiles and apparel from January to June 2018. The export value increased by 3.35% year-on-year, which was 1.23 PCT higher than that of the same period of the previous year. Among them, textile and clothing exports increased by 10.75% and -2.34% respectively, and textile exports rebounded better than clothing.

　　The escalation of Sino-US trade friction has affected the trend of China's textile and apparel exports picking up. If the list of US$200 billion plus 10% tariffs announced by the US on July 11 is officially in force in the future, the proportion of China's textile and apparel exports will be affected by 3.81%. This part of the orders is mainly for textile raw materials, yarns, fabrics, etc. Textile products, in which textile raw materials and yarns are highly homogenized, will increase the cost after taxation, causing US companies to further transfer orders to other countries such as Southeast Asia. Therefore, the recovery trend of China's textile and apparel exports is expected to be affected, and the rebound in textile exports will be weakened.

　　At the enterprise level, after the trade friction escalated, the global textile and apparel faucets with capacity allocation were relatively less affected. In recent years, with the increase of domestic labor costs and the difficulty of “recruiting workers”, the government has strengthened the requirements for environmental protection and energy consumption of enterprises. Some textile and garment leaders have transferred their production capacity to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh to enjoy low local labor costs. Advantages such as tax incentives. Trade disputes will cause some clothing brands to increase orders from Southeast Asian countries in terms of cost. Compared with export-oriented enterprises with domestic production capacity, the global textile and garment leading enterprises with limited production capacity are relatively less affected by trade disputes and have stronger anti-risk ability.